Poisson Predictor
P(k) = λᵏ e⁻λ ÷ k!
Enter how many goals you expect each team to score, for example from expected goals (xG) data.
Questions about the poisson predictor
How does the Poisson model predict football matches?
It treats each team's goals as a Poisson distribution around its expected goals, works out the chance of every scoreline, then adds them up into home, draw, away, over/under and both-teams-to-score chances.
What are its limits?
It assumes the two teams' goals are independent and tends to underrate draws. Treat it as a starting point and compare it with the market.
These tools do the maths only. They can't predict results, and no betting system guarantees a profit.
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